科学
言论
- 王传福多年前关于造车的一句话给了我很大的勇气。他说很多企业因为不了解，会把技术想象到令人畏惧的高度，这种畏惧正是对手给后来者营造了一种产业恐吓。他们不断地告诉你做不成，投入很大，研发很难，直到你放弃。其实你解决不了的不是因为你没有能力，而是你缺乏勇气。 – 雷军
- 心理学家做过一个实验，让实验者长期处于半饥饿状态。结果，这些实验者的心理发生了永久变化。实验结束后，很多人喜欢上了烹饪书和餐馆菜单，会认真比较报纸上的水果和蔬菜价格，甚至开始重新考虑自己的职业，改为从事农业或餐饮。心理学家说，这证明了人被自己缺乏的东西所吸引。 – A utopian strand of economic thought is making a surprising comeback
- AI 的危险在于，它让你跳过思考，让机器填补思想的空白。我们需要 AI 使我们增加思考，而不是减少思考。我们每外包一个想法，就会错失一次成长的机会。 – TURNING THE TABLES ON AI
- 费马大定理是一个极困难的数学猜想，自从1637年提出后，直到1993年才解决。这个定理没有任何实际应用，只是用来提醒人们数学是多么深奥。 – The Fermat’s Last Theorem Project
- 简单性是一种优点，但糟糕的是，复杂的东西卖得更好。 – Simplicity is An Advantage but Sadly Complexity Sells Better
- The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models. – FREEMAN DYSON( Professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, in Princeton)
- Science is organized unpredictability. The best scientists like to arrange things in an experiment to be as unpredictable as possible, and then they do the experiment to see what will happen. You might say that if something is predictable then it is not science. – FREEMAN DYSON( Professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, in Princeton)
- Netflix 公司考核员工的方式，叫做留任者测试。公司要求主管问自己：”如果某员工想离职，我2会努力留住他吗？”，或者”如果今天重新做选择，我还会雇佣这个员工吗？”如果答案是否定的，该员工就需要离职。 – Netflix wants managers to ask themselves whether they would rehire their current employees—and fire them if the answer is no
- There is one story about a fish. He swims up to this older fish and says, “I’m trying to find this thing they call the ocean.”有一个一条鱼的故事。他游到一条年长的鱼面前，说：“我在寻找他们说的海洋。””The ocean?” says the older fish. “That’s what you’re in right now.”“海洋？” 年长的鱼说，“你就在海洋里呀。””This?” says the young fish.” This is water. What I want is the ocean.”“这里？”年轻的鱼说，“这是水，我要找的是海洋。” – 《心灵奇旅》
- I am going to live every minute of it. – 《心灵奇旅》
- Free yourself. – 《心灵奇旅》
- Sometimes we are like this young fish, trying to find the ocean, but we are already in the ocean. Sometimes, we are trying to find the purpose of life, but the purpose of life is life itself.有时候，我们就像这条年轻的鱼，努力寻找海洋，殊不知，我们已经身处海洋之中。有时候，我们努力寻找生活的目标，殊不知，生活的目标就是生活本身。 – 《心灵奇旅》
- 千万不要小看文化产品的吸金能力，泡泡玛特公司2024年上半年的利润超过10亿人民币。谁能想到一家卖玩偶的公司，能够这么赚钱，相比之下，电动汽车的明星公司蔚来和理想，一个季度就亏损几亿元到几十亿。我知道不能这么比，我只是想说，相比辛辛苦苦造汽车，文化产品是更容易的赚钱方式。何况游戏比玩偶的成本更低，玩偶还有制造和运输成本，游戏一旦开发完成，下载购买的成本接近零。发展制造业很困难，需要解决土地、原料、能源、道路、劳动力等等许多问题，哪一个都不容易。产品做出来以后，还要跟竞争对手拼价格，搞不好只能廉价甩卖。游戏就完全不一样，不存在原料问题，需要的是创意 + 软件技术，只要把人才训练出来，再配一些电脑设备，随便找个写字楼，就能源源不断地生产出来。游戏的销售也更简单。制造业的销售，需要物流和仓储，而游戏只需要上传到游戏商店，就能让全世界的玩家买到。 – Frank谈“黑神话悟空”
- 慢就是稳，稳就是快。（Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.） – 海豹突击队,
- 文生图模型 Midjourney 有一个花招，总是返回多个图像，要求用户选择最满意的一个。这显然是一种偏好模型的训练，所以他们现在就有可数百万张选票，知道哪些图像参数更符合用户的提示词。 – HackNews
- 2011年，我去参观埃及博物馆。那是我最喜欢的地方之一，那么多的数千年历史的文物。我来到法老木乃伊的展厅，那里只有我一个参观者。我闲逛了一阵子，突然意识到我和几个曾经统治世界的人，同在一间屋子里面。 – HackNews
- 对形势的分析与把握，远比盲目的行动更加重要。这就好比一个农夫，尽管身强力健，拥有充足的农具，但由于不懂得把握时令物候，所以无论怎样辛勤劳作，所获都会十分有限。孟子所说的“乘势”与“待时”，狭义上可以理解为借势与等待合适的机会，广义上则包含了更丰富的内容。“势”可以是知识储备、社交魅力、口碑影响、人力资源、自身建设，“时”则是机遇、关键点、客观条件，等等。 – 《高手控局：中国历史中的殿堂级处世智慧》
- When it’s windy, beach umbrellas are dangerous. Most people don’t know this and have no idea how to secure an umbrella. Avoid being downwind if you can. – Obvious travel advice
- Time seems to speed up as you get older. And you wonder—is it biological, or is it because life had more novelty when you were a child? Travel partly answers this question—with more novelty, time slows way down again. – Obvious travel advice
- You can’t beat jet lag—you can only really adjust an hour or two per day. I prioritize being functional so when possible I just live on weird hours for a few days after changing time zones. It’s interesting to get up and take a walk at 4:30 AM. – Obvious travel advice
- Don’t confuse scarcity with value. A really good afternoon in the park (a really good one) is maybe about as good as it gets. Travel reveals the value of stability, roots, routine, community, relationships, and cooking at home. – Obvious travel advice
- After seeing each other for a few months, many new couples take a short trip, which often ends in an apocalyptic, relationship-destroying fight. My theory is that’s the trip working as designed—couples do these trips out of an instinctual desire to stress-test their relationships. – Obvious travel advice
观点
The Surprising Power of The Long Game
- 这个世界上，大多数人都在玩短期游戏。如果你玩长期游戏，你会因此获得优势。
- 这是因为，如果你做其他人正在做的事情，回报应该跟其他人差不多，只能保证你获得平均结果，除非你很幸运。
- 要想获得高于其他人的回报，你要么做不同的事情，要么以不同的方式做事。
- 选择很少人玩的长期游戏，你更容易获得高于其他人的回报。这不是因为它更简单，事实上它更困难，但是你每天都投入去做困难的事情，会使得明天变得更容易。
- 长期游戏最困难的地方是第一步。你必须愿意承受当前的痛苦，才能让明天变得更容易一点。
- 在长期游戏中，你每天只能创造出一点微小的优势，它不明显但不意味着不存在。
- 你不能在所有事情上都进行长期游戏。你需要选择对你来说重要的事情，做一个长期规划，然后长期投入。
有趣
克里克从物理转生物的经历
Sixty years ago, when I was a young and arrogant physicist, I tried to predict the future of physics and biology. My prediction was an extreme example of wrongness, perhaps a world record in the category of wrong predictions. I was giving advice about future employment to Francis Crick, the great biologist who died in 2005 after a long and brilliant career. He discovered, with Jim Watson, the double helix. They discovered the double helix structure of DNA in 1953, and thereby gave birth to the new science of molecular genetics. Eight years before that, in 1945, before World War 2 came to an end, I met Francis Crick for the first time. He was in Fanum House, a dismal office building in London where the Royal Navy kept a staff of scientists. Crick had been working for the Royal Navy for a long time and was depressed and discouraged. He said he had missed his chance of ever amounting to anything as a scientist. Before World War 2, he had started a promising career as a physicist. But then the war hit him at the worst time, putting a stop to his work in physics and keeping him away from science for six years. The six best years of his life, squandered on naval intelligence, lost and gone forever. Crick was good at naval intelligence, and did important work for the navy. But military intelligence bears the same relation to intelligence as military music bears to music. After six years doing this kind of intelligence, it was far too late for Crick to start all over again as a student and relearn all the stuff he had forgotten. No wonder he was depressed. I came away from Fanum House thinking, “How sad. Such a bright chap. If it hadn’t been for the war, he would probably have been quite a good scientist”.
A year later, I met Crick again. The war was over and he was much more cheerful. He said he was thinking of giving up physics and making a completely fresh start as a biologist. He said the most exciting science for the next twenty years would be in biology and not in physics. I was then twenty-two years old and very sure of myself. I said, “No, you’re wrong. In the long run biology will be more exciting, but not yet. The next twenty years will still belong to physics. If you switch to biology now, you will be too old to do the exciting stuff when biology finally takes off”. Fortunately, he didn’t listen to me. He went to Cambridge and began thinking about DNA. It took him only seven years to prove me wrong. The moral of this story is clear. Even a smart twenty-two-year-old is not a reliable guide to the future of science. And the twenty-two-year-old has become even less reliable now that he is eighty-two.
荐书
杂谈
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